ADVISORY SQUAWK BOX – WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS (WEEK OF APR. 29th, 2013)

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WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

PREVIOUS WEEK RE-CAP:  (4/22 – 4/26)

Monday (4/22) – Stocks climbed, led by gains in the Nasdaq after reports that activist investor ValueAct Capital took a $2 billion stake in Microsoft, while a jump in the shares of Caterpillar helped buoy the Dow industrials.

(S&P 500 +0.5%)

 Tuesday (4/23) – Stocks climbed in a broad rally, recovering from sharp declines sparked by a “bogus” Associated Press tweet about explosions at the White House.

(S&P 500 +1.0%)

 Wednesday (4/24) – Stocks ended mostly flat as Boeing scaled a five-year high, but weakness in Procter & Gamble kept the Dow in negative territory.

(S&P 500 +0.2%)

 Thursday (4/25) – Stocks rose, lifted by stronger than expected earnings reports and by a large drop in weekly jobless claims.

(S&P 500 +0.4%)

 Friday (4/26) – Stocks ended little changed in thin volume, though the market had a strong week overall despite a mixed bag of earnings and weak economic figures.

(S&P 500 -0.2%)

For the previous week, the Dow gained 1.1%, the S&P rose 1.7%, and the NASDAQ increased 2.3%.

To begin the current week, the S&P 500 is up approx. 10.9% in the year-to-date period.

Technical Update:  In the latest week, the S&P 500 pushed back near its all-time highs to levels seen before the prior week’s sell-off in reaction to significant Gold bearishness and the Boston bombings.  After rebounding off the 1,540 support level two weeks ago, the S&P moved steadily higher in the previous week breaking above the top-end of its previous trading range (1,540 – 1,570), finishing at 1,582.  If the Index continues to remain above the 1,570 level, we expect charts patterns to remain bullish with the next levels of resistance coming in around 1,593 (all-time closing high) & 1,597 (all-time intra-day high).  However, if the Index makes a move below the 1,570 level and re-enters the previous trading range, traders will begin to anticipate a move back into the 1,540 support band.

Key Technical Levels (S&P 500):

On the upside (resistance) – 1,593 (all-time closing high) & 1,597 (all-time intra-day high).

On the downside (support) – 1,570, 1,550, 1,540 & 1,525-1,530 are the next major marks in range on the charts.

 * 50-day moving avg. = 1,551 & 200-day moving avg. = 1,471

Economic Data: We are scheduled for a heavy week on the economic data front, highlighted by Monday’s Personal Income and Pending Home Sales; Tuesday’s Chicago PMI & Consumer Confidence; Wednesday’s ISM Index, Consumer Spending & FOMC Rate Decision; Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims Data & Trade Balance and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Factory Orders.  See below for full list of weekly economic reports.

Corporate Earnings:  Corporate earnings continue at an aggressive pace this week and will be a main focus for the trading community. As of 4/26/13, of the 255 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q1 2013, 68% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This is higher than the long-term average of 63% and higher than the average over the past four quarters of 67%.  On the revenue front, 43% of companies have reported Q1 2013 revenue above analyst expectations. This is lower than the long-term average of 62% and lower than the average over the past four quarters of 52%. Looking ahead, during the week of April 29, 132 S&P 500 companies are expected to report Q1 2013 earnings.   See below for full list of corporate earnings reports. 

Crude Oil: To begin the week, NYMEX WTI Crude Oil is trading around the $94.00 a barrel level & Brent Crude is trading near $103.00 a barrel.  In the 2013 YTD period, NYMEX WTI Crude Oil is flat while Brent Crude is down over 4%.

____________

MAIN EVENTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK:  (4/29 – 5/3)

MONDAY (4/29)

– 8:30 AM ET – Personal Income – Mar – Expectations = 0.3%

– 8:30 AM ET – Personal Spending – Mar – Expectations = 0.1%

– 10:00 AM ET – Pending Home Sales – Mar – Expectations =0.1%

Markets closed in Japan and China

– Eaton Corporation Earnings – BMO

– Loews Corporation Earnings – BMO

– Express Scripts Holding Co Earnings – AMC

TUESDAY (4/30)

– 9:00 AM ET – Case-Shiller 20-city Index – Feb – Expectations = 8.7%

– 9:45 AM ET – Chicago PMI – Apr – Expectations = 52.0

– 10:00 AM ET – Consumer Confidence – Apr – Expectations = 61.0 

– Markets closed in China

– Aetna Inc Earnings – BMO

– Anheuser Busch Inbev SA Earnings – BMO

– Avon Products Incorporated Earnings – BMO

– Fidelity National Information Services Earnings – BMO

– NYSE Euronext Earnings – BMO

– Pfizer Inc Earnings – BMO

– Pitney Bowes Earnings – BMO

– United States Steel Corporation Earnings – BMO

– Valero Energy Corp Earnings – BMO

– Fiserv Inc Earnings – AMC

– Western Union Earnings – AMC

WEDNESDAY (5/1)

– 8:15 AM ET – ADP Employment Change – Apr- Expectations = 155K

– 10:00 AM ET – ISM Index – Apr – Expectations = 51.0

– 10:00 AM ET – Construction Spending – Mar – Expectations = 0.4% 

– 2:15 PM ET – FOMC Rate Decision – The market is largely expecting the Fed to signal full speed ahead on QE3 when it issues its latest policy statement.

– 3:00 PM ET – Auto Sales – Apr – Prior = 5.3M

– May Day closes many markets, including Hong Kong, Brazil, and Germany. Russia’s markets are closed through Friday for public holidays.

– Markets close in China

– Chesapeake Energy Corp Earnings – BMO

– MasterCard Inc Earnings – BMO

– Merck & Co Inc Earnings – BMO

– Time Warner Inc Earnings – BMO

– Viacom Inc Earnings – BMO

– Allstate Corporation Earnings – AMC

– CBS Corporation Earnings – AMC

– Facebook Inc Earnings – AMC

– Marriot International Incorporated Earnings – AMC

– Metlife Inc Earnings – AMC

– Visa Inc Earnings – AMC

THURSDAY (5/2)

– 7:30AM ET Challenger Job Cuts – Apr – Prior = 30.0%

– 8:30 AM ET – Weekly Jobless Claims – Expectations = 346K

– 8:30 AM ET – Productivity – Q1 – Expectations = 1.2%

– 8:30 AM ET – Trade Balance – Mar – Expectations = -43.5B

– ECB Policy Meeting – Notwithstanding Angela Merkel’s remarks that German rates could be tighter, the ECB is seen cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point.

– Cigna Corp Earnings – BMO

– CME Group Inc Earnings – BMO

– Estee Lauder Companies – BMO

– International Paper Co – BMO

– General Motors Co Earnings – BMO

– Kellogg Co Earnings – BMO

– Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc. Earnings – BMO

– PG&E Earnings – BMO

– American International Group Earnings – AMC

– Fluor Corp Earnings – AMC

– Kraft Foods Group Earnings – AMC

FRIDAY (5/3)

– 8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Private Payrolls – Apr – Expectations = 150K

– 8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate – Apr – Expectations = 7.6%

– 10:00 AM ET – Factory Orders – Mar – Expectations = -2.5%

– 10:00 AM ET – ISM Services – Apr – Expectations = 54.0

– Bank of Japan issues minutes of its landmark April policy-setting meeting – Markets are closed in Japan.

– Automatic Data Processing Earnings – BMO

– Duke Energy Corporation Earnings – BMO

– Moodys Corporation Earnings – BMO

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