ADVISORY SQUAWK BOX – WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS (WEEK OF JUNE 17TH, 2013)

Audio Podcast Here: 

WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

PREVIOUS WEEK RE-CAP:  (6/10 – 6/14)

Monday (6/10) – Stocks ended mostly lower, pulling back after the previous session’s big gains despite a credit outlook upgrade of the United States.

(S&P 500 -0.03%)

 Tuesday (6/11) – Stocks slid in a volatile session on Tuesday after Japan’s central bank disappointed equity markets by holding steady its monetary policy.

(S&P 500 -1.0%)

 Wednesday (6/12) – Stocks slid on Wednesday, ending a volatile day with the Dow down more than 100 points in a selloff driven by concerns about central banks winding down their stimulus measures.

(S&P 500 -0.8%)

 Thursday (6/13) – Stocks rallied, rebounding after three days of losses, as stronger-than-expected retail and jobs data helped reassure investors about when the Federal Reserve would wind down its stimulus.

(S&P 500 +1.5%)

 Friday (6/14) – Stocks fell to close their third negative week in four as concern lingered over whether the world’s central banks will soon begin to rein in stimulus programs.

(S&P 500 -0.6%)

For the previous week, the Dow was down 1.2%, the S&P 500 lost 1.0%, and the NASDAQ gave back 1.3%.

To begin the current week, the S&P 500 is up approx. 14.1% in the year-to-date period.

Technical Update:  In the latest week, the S&P 500 finished down after another volatile week of trading. During this period we witnessed two bounces off of the 50 day moving average. Looking ahead, chart watchers and the electronic program trading community will be looking for a sustained move through 1,650, and we could also be seeing the beginning of a double-bottom form, which is often perceived as a technically bullish pattern.

Key Technical Levels (S&P 500):

On the upside (resistance) – 1,650, 1,670, 1,687 (new all-time intra-day high)

On the downside (support) – 1,635, 1,600 – 1,610, 1,550, 1,540 & 1,525-1,530 are the next major marks in range on the charts.

 * 50-day moving avg. = 1,616 & 200-day moving avg. = 1,520

Economic Data: We are scheduled for another moderate week on the economic data front, highlighted by Monday’s Empire Manufacturing; Tuesday’s CPI, Housing Starts & Building Permits; Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision and Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales & Philadelphia Fed. See below for full list of weekly economic reports.

Corporate Earnings:  Corporate earnings continue to trickle in this week with 1 S&P 500 company expected to report Q1 2013 and 10 companies are scheduled to report Q2 2013 earnings. As of 6/17/13, of the 497 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q1 2013, 66% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This is higher than the long-term average of 63% and higher than the average over the past four quarters of 67%.  On the revenue front, 46% of companies have reported Q1 2013 revenue above analyst expectations. This is significantly lower than the long-term average of 62% and lower than the average over the past four quarters of 52%. For Q2 2013, there have been 96 negative EPS preannouncements issued by S&P 500 corporations compared to 14 positive EPS preannouncements. See below for full list of corporate earnings reports. 

Crude Oil: To begin the week, NYMEX WTI Crude Oil is trading around the $98.00 a barrel level & Brent Crude is trading just above $106.00 a barrel.  In the 2013 YTD period, NYMEX WTI Crude Oil is up 5% while Brent Crude is down less than 1%.

____________

MAIN EVENTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK:  (6/17 – 6/21)

MONDAY (6/17)

 – 8:30 AM ET- Empire Manufacturing – Jun – Expectations = 0.8

– 10:00 AM ET – NAHB Housing Market Index – Jun – Expectations = 45

 TUESDAY (6/18)

 – 8:30 AM ET – CPI – May – Expectations = 0.2%

8:30 AM ET – Housing Starts  – May – Expectations = 950K

8:30 AM ET – Building Permits – May – Expectations = 983K

– Adobe Systems Inc Earnings – AMC

WEDNESDAY (6/19)

 – 2:00 PM ET – FOMC Rate Decision – Jun – Expectations = 0.25%

FedEx Earnings – BMO

– Micron Technology Inc Earnings – AMC

– Red Hat Inc Earnings – AMC

 THURSDAY (6/20)

– 8:30 AM ET – Weekly Jobless Claims – Expectations = 340K

– 10:00 AM ET – Existing Home Sales – May – Expectations = 5.00M

– 10:00 AM ET – Philadelphia Fed – Jun – Expectations = -0.2

– 10:00 AM ET – Leading Indicators – May – Expectations = 0.2%

– Euro-zone finance ministers meet through Friday in Luxembourg to discuss the current financial crisis.

– The Swiss National Bank gives a monetary policy assessment.

– Argentina markets are closed.

– Kroger Co Earnings – BMO

– Oracle Corporation Earnings – AMC

FRIDAY (6/21)

 The Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

Darden Restaurants Inc Earnings – BMO

– Carnival Corporation Earnings – BMO

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