Category Economics

The Governator for President

Only a Constitutional Amendment Away Investors have another earnings heavy week with continued monitoring of President Trump’s Executive orders. On the economic front, we have University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Earnings: Earnings have now seen over 270 companies of the S&P 500 companies report 4th quarter earnings. 67% have beaten earnings expectations with 48% beating […]

war-on-cash

The War on Cash: Use this letter to contact your representatives

Here’s a letter you can personalize, modify, and email to your senators and congressional representatives. It identifies the nefarious global war on cash, and strongly urges them to fight against it. While it often feels futile to send messages like this to politicians who are overwhelmingly bought and paid for by corporations and special interest […]

Big Surprise – FOMC Doves Coo

The latest in macro news, economic data and the latest Fed meeting.

Trade, Currency and Military Skirmishes – Part 1

Donald Playing God After only 7 days into the Trump administration, the time it took God to create heaven and earth,  it had already become clear that skirmishes between the US and China will be inevitable. I use the word “skirmish” here, but everybody knows that it can potentially be a euphemism if the discords […]

Time for a #NYexit

Time for a #NYexit Investors have a busy week ahead with the Fed statement, a ton of earnings and continued monitoring of President Trump’s Executive orders. On the economic front, we have Manufacturing PMI, the Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings. Fed Meeting: On Wednesday (2/1), the Fed will release their first statement […]

China’s “Moderate Prosperity”

At the malls and in tourist towns in China, it is very obvious that there are lots of little children all over, especially yearlings and two-year-olds, and lots of pregnant ladies carrying more to arrive. It looks like there is indeed a baby boom, judging by our part of China. The country’s two-child policy may […]

Mobilization

Over the 3-week spring holiday period, China reportedly will be handling over 3 billion passenger-journeys, 2.5 billion by its rail systems! All passengers must be ID-matched to their tickets. This can only be accomplished through its massive systems engineering and management approach. Technology is used to realize processes and projects to unprecedented scale and stability. […]

Doublewood: Roadmap for US-China Relations

Attached is a draft summary of my working paper on A Roadmap For US-China Relations. Matters On Hold At the moment, given the instability in US domestic politics, I believe that China is unlikely to rush into any major initiative with the new American administration. It will spend some time observing. There will be contacts […]

Update: A Tale Of Two Speeches

Xi Jingping delivered his keynote speech at Davos today. He began with a paraphrase from the start of Charles Dickens’ novel, A Tale Of Two Cities: “This is the best of times. This is also the worst of times …” thus he began his keynote address to the annual assembly of the World Economic Forum. […]

Donald Trump Weighs In

Dysfunctional Transition After a bitterly divisive election, we now find ourselves in a series of unprecedented domestic feuds during the presidential transition.  They even spill over into foreign affairs, making us look like two nations at logger-head with ourselves.  Surreal! Being a feisty boxer, Donald Trump has been characteristically mouthing off and compulsively tweeting.  His […]

Adapting To Polycentric Reality

One way to understand polycentrism is to draw a parallel with ecosystems. During polycentric times, the key to success is adaptability. In fact, it is the same story as with evolution. Size and overwhelming strength, if not managed and applied appropriately, can be a dangerous liability. It is a lesson we have learnt from the […]

Doublewood: A Polycentric World

The key to looking at all the current global dynamics is to understand the nature of a polycentric reality in the world’s power configuration. Polycentrism is a little-understood phenomenon in the post-WWII world, although it was not an unusual set of circumstances in other periods of world history. Here, I will not elaborate on the historical […]

Trump’s Taiwan Call – Part 2

It is impossible to know with Trump whether some “move” of his is just a poorly controlled impulse (like his Twitter messages) or a calculated effort to create or build a negotiating position. However, we know he doesn’t care about any other countries, so it is unlikely he has the best interests of the people of […]

Doublewood: Cyber-Knights Around Donald’s Rectangular Table

Trump’s IT Roundtable This is not exactly a new Camelot, nor is Donald Trump simply trying to beg these cyber tycoons for more jobs in the US, as Obama did a few years ago. This looks like a board meeting at a large corporation. In fact, in my opinion, this symbolizes Trump’s attempt to acknowledge […]

Biotech *Trade of the Day: ZYNE

Mixing Colorado, the growing Pot trade, the booming biotech sector, a healthy degree of speculation, and technical analysis, we have the *trade of the day for near, medium, and long-term traders/investors. The company is Zynerba Pharmaceuticals, Inc., with ticker symbol:  ZYNE. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Devon, Pennsylvania, ZYNE is a specialty pharmaceutical company focusing on […]

Deutsche Bank, RMB

The Chinese stock market opened for the first day after the Chinese New Year holidays with a mild 0.6% fall, far less than what the rest of the world lost during the past weeks. The RMB soared from 6.585/USD to 6.491/USD, the largest single-day appreciation in more than 10 years! That should send chills down […]

Doublewood: China’s Big Diplomacy Continues

Xi Jingping’s first foreign visit this year starts today. He is heading to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran for a round of previously unplanned “work visits”. It was obviously hastily scheduled, and urgently necessitated by recent developments. The blow-up of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the new year has raised the tension and […]

Doublewood: What’s Up With China? – Part 2

Economic Reform and Financial Environment There is a saying: “When Wall Street catches the flu, the world goes on a spin”. Now we should add a saying: “When China sneezes, the Federal Reserve freezes”. Turbulence And The New Normal The current state of global financial turbulence is in part a result of China’s major undertaking […]

Doublewood: What’s Up With China? – Part 1

Many are asking similar questions about China’s economic and financial stability. First, I will talk about the current financial market situation. ———————————————— Stock Market — There is still considerable excess leverage that has to be whittled down, before you get to a market in which valuation matters. Further selling pressure will periodically rear its head, […]

Doublewood: Red & Gold Diplomacy

Since several months ago, we have been witnessing a series of dramatic episodes in the world’s geopolitical stage. Practically every major country has racheted up their engagement with China. That is ushering in a period of Big Diplomacy, as the world looks for a new balance in a polycentric reality. Today, let us zoom in […]

Liberty Blitzkrieg

The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion. - Albert Camus

Hidden Forces

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." - Voltaire

aceloewgold

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." - Voltaire

Touch Stone Connect

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